Summer heat waves, fall predictions. Over the past few months, I’ve analyzed every college football team, measuring their lost offensive and defensive production, scoring efficiency, schedule difficulty, and other factors that have historical patterns of significance when predicting future seasons.
Below is my prediction of the AP Poll at the end of the regular season. E(Record) is expected win-loss record. While no single team has an expectation of finishing 12-0, it is likely that one or more teams will finish the season unblemished. For instance, Alabama and Oregon are #1 and #2, each with an estimated 44% chance of going unbeaten during the regular season. Since they do not play each other, there is an estimated 69% chance that one of those two teams will finish 12-0.
The majority of teams will fall within 2 wins of their expected win totals. However, there is a lot of variability in college football, and some teams will drastically outperform or underperform these estimated win totals. As they say, that’s why they play the games.